Going concern cash flow forecast

An Excel cash flow forecast for a small company's going concern assessment, covering 18 months – enough for twelve months from approval when the accounts are approved within six months of the forecast start; a check flags it otherwise. It brings the forecast, a downside with mitigating actions, a reverse stress test and covenant tests together in a dashboard with conclusion prompts, draft note wording under IAS 1 (IAS 8 from 2027) and an ISA 570 (Revised 2024) checklist, plus a worked example for a fictitious restaurant and café group.

What it does

• Builds an 18-month direct-method cash forecast from monthly sales, a receipts profile and ten payment lines, and flags the months in the assessment window

• Works out closing cash and headroom against a committed facility that falls away after its expiry date unless renewal is assumed

• Runs a downside (lower sales, slower collections, cost inflation, facility not renewed, one-off shock) and adds back management's mitigating actions

• Gives a closed-form reverse stress test and a sensitivity grid for uniform falls in receipts – no goal seek or macros

• Tests a minimum liquidity covenant and a net debt / EBITDA covenant (using operating cash flow as an EBITDA proxy) for the base case and the downside

• Includes a 12-item events-or-conditions checklist, conclusion prompts that you select, and draft wording for a material uncertainty or a close-call significant judgement

• Lists ISA 570 (Revised 2024) auditor considerations and runs 12 automatic checks

What you get

• One Excel workbook (.xlsx) with an Instructions tab, the blank template and a worked example for a fictitious three-site restaurant and café group with a seasonal trough, an overdraft renewal and a close-call downside.

• Clearly marked input cells, protected formulas and built-in checks, with a status line on every tab.

• Works in Microsoft Excel 2010 or later (Windows or Mac). No macros.

Scope

One currency, one committed facility and simple covenant definitions; group cash pooling, guarantees and accruals-based covenant calculations are outside scope.

Designed for smaller entities and their auditors. It is a working aid: it does not replace the Standards, the auditing standards or professional judgement, and it does not reach the going concern conclusion for you. Its scope and limitations are set out in the Instructions tab.